AgriCharts Market Commentary
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Corn futures are trading steady to slightly higher this morning. Weekly ethanol production rose to 896,000 bpd from 885,000 bpd, and inventories declined a half million gallons to 17.9 million gallons despite the larger production and somewhat smaller plant operating margins. Enough rain got into central Brazil to allow planting to resume. Traders were looking for USDA to show 700,000 MT to 1.3 MMT of export sales made in the week ending 10/16. USDA reported the actual total was 1,031,200 MT.
Soybeans are currently about three cents higher. Traders were looking for USDA to report net weekly export sales of 700,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. The actual figure released at 7:30 am CDT this morning for combined old and new crop bookings was 1,992,400 MT, after subtracting noted decreases. The largest buyer was China, in for more than 1.7 MMT. Soybean meal bookings were only 23,000 MT vs. trade ideas in the 150,000 to 350,000 MT range. Both soybean and meal export commitments remain well ahead of the average pace for mid-October. Brazilian producers have been able to resume planting in the central part of the country after some needed rains arrived. That also meant fresh Brazilian hedge sales.
Wheat futures are trading mixed within a couple cents of even money this morning after higher closes on Wednesday. Trade ideas for the weekly export sales report were 350,000 to 500,000 MT. The USDA indicated net sales for the week ending October 16 were 275,200 MT, after 24,200 MT of decreases. Argentina has issued export permission for 400,000 MT of old crop wheat, expected to remain in South America for the most part if not all of it. Brazil is the main buyer of Argentine export wheat and to the degree they can get it purchases from North America are reduced.
Cattle futures are trading 25 to 50 cents higher this morning. Cash cattle trade has been quiet, without enough sales reported yet for a market trend. Asking prices are $168-170, with $260 or higher floating around in the north. Wholesale prices were higher on Wednesday. Choice boxed beef prices were $1.16 higher, while Select boxes were on average 14 cents higher per hundred pounds. The USDA Cold Storage report was slightly bearish, showing an 8% jump in beef in storage during September. Stocks were still 16% smaller than year ago. USDA reported weekly beef export sales for last week totaled. 7,600 MT vs. 8,000 MT the previous week.
Hog futures are currently trading 10 to 35 cents lower after some triple digit gains on Wednesday. The USDA average pork carcass cutout value continues to leak lower, down $2.88 to $101.16 in the pm FOB plant report. Pork loins have been a disaster all month, down 22% since their peak on October 3. The average carcass base price was $1.99 lower in the ECB yesterday. The WCB was $2.85 lower, with IA/MN quoted $3.34 lower. On Wednesday afternoon, USDA showed that total pork in Cold Storage on September 30 was just over 100% of August 2014 and down 4.1% from year ago. The 10 year average increase in September pork stocks vs. August is 6.0% vs. 0.02% this year. USDA this morning reported net weekly pork export sales through October 16 were 20,100 MT with 500 MT of the total booked for 2015.
Cotton futures are trading 20 to 30 points lower this morning. Estimated futures volume on Wednesday was under 13,000 contracts, vs. 18,708 officially on Tuesday. Cotton futures on the Zhengzhou exchange were mostly lower this morning. Cert stocks for Dec futures delivery are currently at 15,928 bales, with 31 decertified on October 21. USDA this morning reported 86,000 RB of US cotton was sold into the export market last week. This included 4,700 RB of pima, with the balance upland varieties.
Market Commentary provided by:
Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022