AgriCharts Market Commentary
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Corn futures are trading 1 to 4 cents lower after closing 4 to 6 cents higher yesterday. There were only 2 deliveries put out against the Mar 14 contract overnight. Preliminary OI was up 8,989 contracts, indicating fresh fund buying. The trade will be watching for updated CONAB figures out of Brazil. Chinese sources suggest that hog producers there are still seeing losses, and not very interested in buying Chinese or US corn.
Soybean futures are currently 18 to 48 cents lower after a mixed close on Tuesday which featured some bear spreading. There were 44 deliveries put out against the Mar 14 contract overnight, with Rosenthal being the largest stopper of 38 contracts. Preliminary OI was up 7,670 contracts. The Mar 14 meal contract finished just south of unchanged at $452.30. USDA estimated 2013/14 world ending stocks figure at 70.46 MMT, which was lower than the average trade guess of 71.46 MMT and also lower than the Feb figure of 73.01 MMT. The production cuts in Brazil and Paraguay were a big part of the global reduction. South American basis has been weakening this week, reinforcing suspicions that China did in fact cancel some nearby shipments due to port congestion at their end.
Wheat futures are trading 5 to 18 cents higher this morning in the front month Mar 14 contracts. Preliminary OI in CBOT wheat was up a modest 826 contracts. The Mar 14 CBOT contract settled at $6.63, the highest close since early December. Dry weather forecasts for the next two weeks in the South Plains provided a positive influence yesterday. There are also individual trader ideas that some SRW which had been protected by snow cover is now vulnerable to freeze damage.
Cattle futures are trading steady after a mixed settle yesterday. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice cuts up $2.57 and select cuts up $1. 72. Both set new record highs, as the surge in pork prices has limited consumer ability to switch away from beef. The Choice/Select spread is at $3.76. The cash cattle market is quiet with some light trading reported Tuesday at $144, and $236 for the dressed. Week to date estimated slaughter is 219,000 head, which is 18,000 head less than the same period a year ago. We are not yet seeing the seasonal upturn in numbers, likely due to cattle that were “pulled ahead” in February. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 0.22 at $173.56.
Lean Hogs are trading $1.25 to $1.45 lower this morning. The April 14 contract scored a new high for the move of $118.57 at one point in the session but settled at $117.10. The pork carcass cutout was up $2.59 at $117.53. Cash hog prices from the ECB were not reported, while values from the WCB were up $2.48. The IA/MN marketing area was up $2.22 on average. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.10 at $104.73. Week to date estimated slaughter is 821,000 head which is 14,000 head less than the same period a year ago.
Cotton futures are trading 115 to 130 points lower after a mixed settle on Tuesday. The May 14 contract posted its highest close since August 19 at 91.65. Outside markets helped limit any major upside with the S&P 500 closing down 0.51% at 1867.63. Crude Oil was also sharply lower and finished down $1.38% at $99.72. ICE Certified stocks were reported 259,742 RB, with 161 new certs, 0 decerts and 0 bales awaiting review.
Market Commentary provided by:
Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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