AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are trading more than 4 cents higher this morning, touching $3.65 after posting a new high-close for the move on Thursday.  Export sales came in toward the higher end of expectations at 1,031,200 MT.  USDA also reported strong weekly sorghum export sales and big export shipments to China.  The weekly data from the EIA on ethanol was bullish for corn use with lower stocks and increased production.   


Soybean futures are currently more than 6 cents higher after gains of  as much as 30 cents on Thursday.  USDA reported net weekly export sales at 2.17 MMT, well above the top trade guess of 1.2 MMT.  The largest buyer was China @ more than 1.7 MMT.  Dec meal futures added $14.40 on Thursday. Overnight, they are currently up another $5.50.  Cumulative 2014/15 meal export commitments are currently well ahead of recent years.  USDA shows commitments for 57% of the projected full year shipments. Typically only 36% would have been purchased by now. 


Wheat futures are trading 6 to 9 cents higher this morning. The higher prices yesterday were posted despite weekly export sales coming in below the range of trade expectations.  Sales commitments since June 1 are now 59% of the full year forecast. The 5 year average pace for this date is 58%. Front month Paris wheat futures were higher yesterday. 


Cattle futures are trading mixed, from about 7 cents higher in the front month to as much as 27 cents lower for February.  Cash cattle trade has been quiet this week, without enough sales reported yet for a market trend.  Asking prices are $168-170, with $260 or higher floating around in the north. Packer bids were mostly still at $166 on Thursday afternoon. Wholesale prices came in lower yesterday, with Choice off $1.57 and Select off $1.53.  USDA reported weekly beef export sales for last week totaled 7,600 MT vs. 8,000 MT the previous week.  Estimated week to date slaughter is 449K, 4K larger than last week, but 40K head smaller than a year ago

Lean Hogs

Hog futures are currently down 82 cents in the December contract and off $1.33 in the April contract. The USDA average pork carcass cutout value continues to leak lower, down another $0.62 cents to $100.54 in the p.m. report. The average carcass base price was not reported in the ECB due to confidentiality, but was $1.37 lower in the WCB, and $1.22 lower in the IA/MN marketing area.  Week to date estimated slaughter is 1.708 million head, 4K head less than last week and 8K head less than a year ago. 


Cotton futures are trading higher this morning, with Dec up 32 points and the May contract is 2 points higher.  Estimated futures volume on Thursday bounced back up to around 17,500 contracts, vs. 12,926 officially on Tuesday.  Cert stocks for Dec futures delivery are currently at 15,928 bales. USDA reported 86,000 RB of US cotton was sold into the export market last week. This included 4,700 RB of pima, with the balance upland varieties.  Export commitments as a percent of total projected 2014/15 exports are at 61%, several points ahead of the 5 year average for this date of 53%.  They were only 41% after this week last year.  The LDP for this week is 2.70 cents per pound. 

Market Commentary provided by:

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