AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn

Corn futures closed 4 cents lower across the board.   The front month Sept 14 contract forged a new low for the move at $3.52.  Forecasts over the next 5 to 7 days for the Midwest have increased chances for moisture which may be helping to pressure the market ahead of the weekend.  Yesterday the market could not build a rally on solid new crop export sales this week and slipped lower again today. The US Dollar index was lower on the day, after rallying throughout July.  The traders are watching the forecast, and the USDA is in the process of collecting data and yield estimates from farmers for the August WASDE report.  The CFTC Commitment of Traders report this afternoon showed managed money decreasing their net long position in corn by 7,384 contracts as of July 29 giving them a net long position of 63,024 lots.

 

Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.52 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.62 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.74 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents

May 15 Corn closed at $3.83 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed 9 to 26 cents lower on the day.  The Sept 14 contract displayed the most weakness and closed at $10.73.  Warmer forecasts for the Midwest over the weekend may help to enhance crop growth which is providing a bearish influence ahead of the weekend, but the bull argument is that much of the main growing region has been pretty dry for at least two weeks and needs an actual rain event; not just a forecast for one. Yesterday the trade shook off much larger than expected new crop export sales in both soybeans and soybean meal.  Bean meal sales for 2014/15 were more than double any weekly total for new crop so far this year.  The national average cash price was reported at $12.05 yesterday.  As of the close on July 29, CFTC shows managed money buying 10,224 net contracts of soybeans, which brings them to a net short position of 8,319.

 

Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $12.15, down 9 1/2 cents,

Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $10.73 1/2, down 26 1/4 cents,

Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.58 1/2, down 23 1/2 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.66 3/4, down 23 1/2 cents,

Aug 14 Soybean Meal closed at $387.50, down $3.80,

Aug 14 Soybean Oil closed at $35.45, down $0.66

Wheat

Wheat futures closed steady to 7 cents higher on the day.  The Sept 14 KCBT contract displayed the most strength and was up over a nickel.  The ongoing Russian/Ukraine conflict brings uncertainty about the grain from that region, and brings headline support to prices that have dropped substantially in recent months.  Thursday morning the USDA published an export sales figure that was well above trade expectations, putting the actual figure at 801,000 MT.  Total commitments as a percent of total projected exports are 40% vs. 34% as the five year average.  The Ministry of Agriculture in Japan is seeking to buy 154,245 MT of food quality wheat from the United States and Australia in a tender issued Friday instead of its normal Tuesday release date.  As of the close last Tuesday, managed money account sold 17,449 contracts in CBOT wheat for the week, giving them a net short position of 71,968 lots.

 

 

 

 

Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.34 1/4, up 4 cents,

Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.32 3/4, up 7 cents,

Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.16, unch,

Cattle

Cattle futures settled $0.80 to $1.65 lower on the day. Feeders settled $0.47 to $1.57 lower on the day.  Estimated weekly slaughter was reported at 574,000 head compared to 571,000 head last week.   Wholesale beef prices are lower, with choice boxes down $0.53 at $263.13 and select boxes down $2.48 at $258.12.   The choice/select spread is at $5.01.  Cash cattle activity reported this morning included 2,149 head of live cattle changing hands at $163 in Nebraska, along with a few hundred dressed sales reported at $258.  There were a few hundred head sold in Iowa and went for between $162 and $164.  Colorado sales were less than 100 head, but sold for $165.  The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts decreasing their net long position in live cattle by 2,218 contracts last week bringing their overall net long position to 116,437 contracts

 

Aug 14 Cattle closed at $157.300, down $0.800,

Oct 14 Cattle closed at $156.000, down $1.300,

Dec 14 Cattle closed at $156.425, down $1.650,

Aug 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $220.275, down $0.475

Sep 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $219.900, down $1.325

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $219.600, down $1.575

Lean Hogs

Lean hogs settled $0.22 lower to $0.07 higher.  Estimated weekly slaughter was reported at 5K head larger than last week, but were 160K head smaller than the same week a year ago.  The average pork carcass cutout value is $1.71 lower at $127.32.   IA/MN area carcass base price was $1.62 lower and WCB hogs averaged $1.40 lower.   ECB hogs were down $1.33 on the day.  Russian health officials have reportedly threatened to ban imports of US chicken due to salmonella concerns, but it smells more like a political maneuver. As of the close last Tuesday, managed money accounts reported a weekly decrease of 1,037 contracts in lean hog longs giving them a net long position of 53,834 contracts.

 

Aug 14 Hogs closed at $118.025, up $0.075,

Oct 14 Hogs closed at $102.825, down $0.225

Dec 14 Hogs closed at $94.400, up $0.050

Cotton

Cotton futures closed 40 points higher across the board, starting August on a positive note after the Dec14 futures posted new life of contract lows again this week after plunging more than 1000 points during the month of July. Outside markets are under pressure and reacting to the most recent Non Farm Payrolls figure which was reported at 209,000.  TheS&P 500 is down another 9 handles at 1921.  Crude is down another 0.73% at 97.45.  Cert stocks were reported at 128,361 bales, with 10,247 decerts and 0 new certs.  The Cotlook A Index is down 1.10 at 72.15.  The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts decreasing their net long position in cotton by 2,730 contracts bringing their overall net long on July 29 to 888 lots.  

 

Oct 14 Cotton closed at 62.49, up 40 points,

Dec 14 Cotton closed at 63.27, up 40 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com