AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are trading4 to 6 cents higher this morning. Trade ideas for USDA weekly Export Sales were in the 650,000 MT to 1.2 MMT range, about half old crop and half new crop. USDA this morning reported that sales for the week totaled 1.4349 MMT, with nearly 80% of the total made up of new crop corn.  Weekly ethanol production was 16K barrels per day(bpd) higher than the previous week, coming in at 959K bpd.  That is the second largest weekly corn consumption of the year for ethanol. A weather firm rolled out a 172.8 bpa national number yesterday but the market was able to shake it off. The NWS 8-14 day forecast continues the much below normal temps for the Corn Belt through at least August 6.


Soybean futures are currently trading more than 20 cents higher so far this morning, after double digit gains on Wednesday. High temps and limited rainfall are stressing shallow rooted beans in the Midwest but some relief is expected next week. Chinese buying for export has been aggressive in the past week. Trade estimates for the USDA weekly Export Sales report were in the 1.2 to 1.6 MMT range, with most of that new crop. Unlike recent weeks, traders were not expecting net cancellations of old crop. USDA just told us that net export sales last week for old crop were 226,700 MT, and the new crop total was reported at a whopping 2.451 MMT, with 1.2835 MMT slated for delivery to China.  The new crop price got cheap enough for China to step in and buy big.  


Wheat futures are trading nearly a dime higher this morning in all three classes. Trade ideas for US weekly wheat export sales last week were in the 300-600,000 MT range. This morning USDA reported that net weekly sales through July 17 totaled 443,200 MT.  The largest buyer s were Japan and Nigeria.  Export shipments from Ukraine and Russia continue unabated, despite additional military aircraft being shot down yesterday.


Cattle futures are trading as much as $2.50 higher this morning. Nearby August held its limit gain from Tuesday and tacked on a dime yesterday while waiting for cash cattle trade to develop. That has yet to happen. Weekly beef export sales reported this morning were 10,800 MT.  Wholesale beef prices were mixed yesterday with Choice boxed 21 cents lower after setting record highs yesterday. Select was quoted $2.92 higher. The Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday, with the trade average guess (Bloomberg) for July 1 On Feed at 98.11% of year ago. The CME Feeder index was 16 higher at $210.64.

Lean Hogs

Lean hogs are currently trading more than two dollars lower than yesterday, after being lock limit down in the front four contracts at the end of the Wednesday session. The carcass cutout price and cash hog prices have drifted lower the last few days. Futures did that in spades. The average pork carcass cutout value was $1.24 lower at $132.60.  Weekly pork export sales were 4,300 MT for the week ending July 17, up 26 % from the previous week, but well below the 4-week moving average.  The CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.59 at $132.57.  Cash hog prices in the ECB were $1.18 lower, with the IA/MN area averaging 79 cents lower. Carcass based direct market prices in the WCB averaged $0.76 lower yesterday afternoon.


Cotton futures are trading 5 to 27 points lower this morning. The US dollar index is slightly higher this morning, and crude oil is off about 40 cents from yesterday.  Cotton has been losing a little market share to synthetics on the spinning system. The put/call ratio was .73 yesterday, so we suspect the longs are nibbling on the calls.  Certified stocks were last reported at 205,767 bales, with no new certs, 30,440 decerts, and no bales awaiting review.The Cotlook A Index was up 10 points today at 83.15.  This morning, USDA reported net weekly export sales of US cotton for last week totaled 373,200 RB, including 3,700 RB of upland.  2013/14 sales of Upland cotton were actually posted as a net reduction of 1,900 RB for this week. 

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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