AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed 4 to 6 cents lower across the board.  The May 14 contract posted its lowest daily closing price since April 2nd.  Weather conditions in the major production areas of Midwest are set to warm up over the next 10 days which should allow for additional planting progress into late April.  Some freeze damage has been documented on Texas corn from the Monday night temps. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production at 939,000 bpd, which was sharply higher compared to last week’s figure of 896,000 bpd.  It represents 100 million bushels of corn use per week and was the largest since the week ending December 8.  Marketing YTD corn use for ethanol is over 3.1 billion bushels. Ethanol stocks were reported at 16.0 million barrels, down 400,000 from last week.  Ethanol imports were 0 this week. A (110,000 farmer) survey by the NBS in China anticipates a 1.7% increase in Chinese corn acreage in 2014.

 

May 14 Corn closed at $4.97 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents,

Jul 14 Corn closed at $5.03 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents,

Sep 14 Corn closed at $5.00 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents

Dec 14 Corn closed at $4.99, down 4 1/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed 9 to 17 cents higher on the day.  Impressive demand continues to provide a bullish influence and helped the May 14 contract reach a new lifetime contract high at $15.22.  The May 14 meal contract was up another $3.60 at $491.00.  Trader talk is that Argentine harvest is around 14% complete, which is behind the average pace for this time of year of 24% normal.   Brazilian harvest is now thought to be 86% complete, with 60% of the crop believed to be sold by the producers.  Traders holding short calls or short May futures are being squeezed out ahead of May futures deliveries, with few bushels available to deliver. Trade estimates for USDA weekly export sales in the morning are very modest at only 150,000-350,000 MT due to assumed old crop cancellations.

 

May 14 Soybeans closed at $15.18 3/4, up 17 1/2 cents,

Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $15.08 3/4, up 21 1/4 cents,

Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $14.24, up 14 1/2 cents,

Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $12.99 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents,

May 14 Soybean Meal closed at $491.00, up $3.60,

May 14 Soybean Oil closed at $43.71, up $0.88

Wheat

Wheat futures closed 11 to 13 cents lower on the day.  The May 14 contract traded as high as $7.11 earlier in the session but was unable to maintain a firm bid and closed at $6.88.  Ideas of freeze damage in the Plains were supportive for the trade yesterday, but improved rain chances are seen ultimately and took the lead as the bearish catalyst today.  Profit taking by nervous longs ahead of the three day weekend was also a feature.  Jordan was said to have purchased 150,000 MT of optional origin wheat yesterday.   Japan is tendering for 136,200 MT of food grade wheat in the weekly MOA tender.   Trade estimates for USDA export sales in the morning are 250-850,000 MT.

 

May 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.88, down 13 3/4 cents,

May 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.54 1/2, down 11 cents,

May 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.26 1/2, down 12 cents

Cattle

Cattle futures settled $0.15 to $0.47 higher on the day.   Feeders settled $0.07 to $0.25 higher.   Estimated week to date slaughter was reported at 348,000 head compared to 350,000 head last week.  Wholesale prices were higher with choice boxes up $0.89 at $223.75 while select boxes were up $1.33 at $214.47 in the afternoon report.  Cash trade has been reported in Texas and Nebraska, with the former at $146 and the latter at $240. Volume would still be described as light. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $0.12 to $179.63.

 

Apr 14 Cattle closed at $145.750, up $0.470,

Jun 14 Cattle closed at $135.620, up $0.200,

Aug 14 Cattle closed at $133.550, up $0.150,

Apr 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $179.300, up $0.075

May 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $179.925, up $0.150

Aug 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $182.825, up $0.250

Lean Hogs

Lean Hogs settled $1.37 to $1.65 higher on the day.   Estimated week to date slaughter was reported at 1,204,000 head compared to 1,225,000 head last week.  The afternoon pork carcass cutout value is $0.57 lower at $124.121.16.    Loin primals were the strongest, up $3.36 at $124.67.  Hams have been weak now that the Easter product is out of the processor channel and on offer at the grocery store. The CME Lean Hog Index is down $1.43 at $124.12. In the WCB, the carcass base prices are down $2.67 at an average of $114.67.  Values from the ECB were not reported by USDA, while values in the IA/MN areas were down $2.64.

 

May 14 Hogs closed at $122.875, up $1.375

Jun 14 Hogs closed at $123.770, up $1.250

Jul 14 Hogs closed at $121.655, up $1.650

Cotton

Cotton futures closed 46 to 128 points higher on the day.  Outside markets in the US offered a supportive tone, with the S&P 500 futures up another 17 handles at 1856.  The Fed Beige Book was seen as viewing better growth opportunities China cotton futures on the Zhengzhou exchange for May delivery were down 0.09%.  The China GDP print which was released last night came in at 7.4%, which was in line with the estimate.  ICE Certified stocks were reported @ 277,957 bales, with 2,069 new certs, 0 decerts and 1,000 bales awaiting review.   The Cotlook A Index is down 1.00 at 92.85. 

 

May 14 Cotton closed at 91.04, up 112 points,

Jul 14 Cotton closed at 92.57, up 128 points

Oct 14 Cotton closed at 82.23, up 46 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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