AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are trading mostly a couple cents lower this morning. Year to date Chinese corn imports are up 5.2% from a year ago despite restrictions on US purchases. Much of the corn has come from Ukraine. They have also been buying US grain sorghum. The Friday night Cattle on Feed report showed heavier than expected October placements, resulting in larger November On Feed numbers and an expectation for slightly more corn consumption. The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed managed money accounts adding 147 contracts to their net long position, which was reported at 186,954 contracts as of the Tuesday close.


Soybean futures are trading 8 to 10 cents lower this morning after posting an 18 cent gain in the nearby contract on Friday. December contract was $7.60 higher on Friday, but ended the week with a loss of $1.70.  Argentine soybean planting is now estimated to be 35% completed. Brazilian planting is still running about 7% behind the average pace for this date. According to the CFTC, the managed money accounts had decreased their net long position in soybeans by 10,620 contracts as of the Tuesday close, which brought them to a net long position of 30,733 contracts.  


Wheat futures are currently trading steady to slightly lower.  Cold temperatures in Russia are potentially hurting their winter wheat production for 2015.  December options expired Friday, potentially leaving a few folks with new futures positions. In the week ending Nov 18, managed money accounts had decreased their net short position in Chicago wheat by 19,254 contracts, bringing their net position to down to -11,881 contracts.  Their net long position in KC wheat grew by 753 contracts from the previous week.  


Cattle futures are called 25 to 50 cents lower this morning. The USDA COF report showed the number on feed November 1 was 100.45% of a year ago. Placements were 99.12%, and marketings were 92.23% of what they were at this point last year. The numbers were bearish on paper but shorts are leery of a fade attempt if they sell aggressively.   Beef stocks in cold storage were 85.18% of a year ago, and were up 0.19% from the previous month.  Wholesale beef prices were lower on Friday with the Choice boxes averaging 17 cents lower and Select boxes down $1.06 from Thursday.  Choice beef added $3.06 since last Friday, and Select picked up $3.64 during the week.  Some $172 cash cattle trade occurred today, with $268 in the carcass market. As of the Tuesday close, managed money speculative accounts added about 6% to their net long position in the weekly report from the CFTC.

Lean Hogs

Hog futures are called steady to 20 cents higher. The average pork carcass cutout value lost $2.54 on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 20 cents at $88.95 on Friday. The monthly USDA Cold Storage report showed frozen pork stocks at the end of October were 92.88% of a year earlier, and down 3.68% from the previous month.  Week to date estimated slaughter including Saturday is 2.232 million head; 13K head larger than last week, and 114K head smaller than the same week a year ago.  Carcass based hog prices were higher today.  The ECB average was only up 5 cents, the WCB price was 62 cents higher, and the IA/MN marketing areas led the way with a 69 cents increase from the previous day and a weighted average of $86.48.  


Cotton futures are trading 7 to 34 points lower this morning. December futures posted a triple digit gain Friday, but ended the week 40 points lower.  Cert stocks available for December futures delivery were reported at 22,729 bales as of November 20, down 1,320. Chinese calendar year imports from all sources were down 38.1% through October, based on customs data. The Cotlook A index is down 0.20 at 65.90.  The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed that as of the Tuesday close, managed money accounts had flipped to a net-short position.  Their net short position was reported as -3,454 contracts, a net swing of -18,336 contracts from the previous weekly report.

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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