AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading slightly lower at midday.  In the crop progress report last night, the Brugler500 Index was unchanged for the second week in a row at 387 as USDA made no change in crop condition ratings.  The national crop was reported 27% mature vs. the 5yr average 39%.  In the first week reporting harvest progress, USDA shows 4% harvested vs. the 5yr average of 9% for this week.  YTD corn export shipments are 746 thousand MT (29 million bushels) ahead of the first 11 days of the 2013 marketing year.  The national average cash price according to DTN is at $3.17, four cents higher than it was on Friday.

Dec 14 Corn is at $3.41 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 15 Corn is at $3.53 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

May 15 Corn is at $3.61 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

Jul 15 Corn is at $3.69 1/2, down 1 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 4 to 8 cents lower at midday. The buying has been in the late 2015 contracts. The weekly USDA report showed 24% of the crop is dropping leaves, when the five year average is 32%. By state, some of the laggards include MN at 12% dropping vs. the 37% 5-year average and ND @ 37% compared to 45% average. SD was 28% vs. 56% average, IA @ 13% vs. 36% average.  ASA announced this morning that Chinese buyers had signed contracts to purchase 4.8 MMT of soybeans (176 million bushels) yesterday at a ceremony in Milwaukee. This is an annual trade mission event, and the actual shipments will be spread out over the year. The dollar commitment is similar to last year, but the bushels are up due to lower prices this year.  January soybeans on the Dalian exchange were at the US equivalent of $20.47.

Nov 14 Soybeans are at $9.82, down 7 1/2 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans are at $9.90 1/2, down 7 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans are at $9.98 1/4, down 6 cents,

May 15 Soybeans are at $10.06 1/4, down 4 cents,

Oct 14 Soybean Meal is at $338.60, down $0.20,

Oct 14 Soybean Oil is at $32.96, down $0.31

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly trading a few cents lower at midday.  The weekly crop progress report from the USDA showed the Spring wheat harvest progress at 74% is getting closer to the 5yr average pace of 86% for this date.  The winter wheat crop is 12% planted, slightly ahead of the five year average for this date.  SovEcon raised its estimate of Russian wheat production to 60 MMT from 58 MMT, and raised projected exports above 20 MMT.  USDA was at 59 MMT, and 22.5 MMT (respectively) in the WASDE report last Thursday.  Egypt bought 180,000 MT of wheat from France at an overnight tender, with more than 1 MMT offered to them from various origins.

Dec 14 CBOT Wheat is at $4.97 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 14 KCBT Wheat is at $5.86, down 1/4 cent,

Dec 14 MGEX Wheat is at $5.67 3/4, down 3/4 cent

Cattle

Cattle futures are currently trading lower at midday.  Feeders are mixed, from 25 cents higher to 55 cents lower, with the October contract currently steady to the Monday close.  Cash cattle trade it reported mostly inactive on light demand.  It was down $2-3 late last week after hitting record levels the prior week, with volume at $160-162 in the south and $248-250 in the north.  Asking prices appear to be in the $164-165 area this week. Wholesale beef prices were reported mixed this morning with Choice boxes averaging 40 cents lower while Select 600-900 pound carcasses were up $0.22.  Estimated Monday slaughter was 115K head on par with last Monday, and 4K head short of the same day a year ago.

Oct 14 Cattle are at $155.750, down $0.600,

Dec 14 Cattle are at $158.400, down $0.625,

Feb 15 Cattle are at $158.850, down $0.850,

Sep 14 Feeder Cattle are at $229.500, up $0.250

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle are at $225.850, unch,

Nov 14 Feeder Cattle are at $223.200, down $0.550

Lean Hogs

Hog futures are trading from 47 cents higher to 95 cents lower at midday with the October contract trading as high as $106.925 earlier in the session.  The CME Index was up another $0.92 at $102.26, firming the basis. The pork carcass cutout average price was reported 26 cents higher than yesterday morning, coming in at $109.11 today.  Carcass based cash hog prices in the WCB were 78 cents lower.  Prices from the ECB and the IA/MN marketing area were not reported this morning due to confidentiality restrictions.  Estimated Monday slaughter was 404K head, up 4K head from last Monday, but off 28K head from a year ago.

Oct 14 Hogs are at $106.550, up $0.475,

Dec 14 Hogs are at $95.300, down $0.550

Feb 15 Hogs are at $93.150, down $0.950

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 17 to 42 points lower this morning after a sharp correction on Monday. The US dollar index is sharply lower at midday, and the FOMC meeting is today and tomorrow. The weekly US crop condition ratings were slightly lower than the previous week.  NASS reported 51% of the crop with bolls opening vs. the 5yr average of 49%.  Harvest progress is at 6% vs. the 5yr average of 7% for this date.  ICE Certified stocks are down to 48,649 bales as we approach the October contract delivery period.  Another 2,020 bales were decertified on Monday.

Oct 14 Cotton is at 67.76, down 42 points,

Dec 14 Cotton is at 65.62, down 22 points

Mar 15 Cotton is at 65.6, down 17 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com