AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed steady on the day.  Weekly ethanol production was 5K barrels per day lower than the previous week, coming in at 954K bpd.  Stocks of ethanol were up 700,000 at 18.6 million barrels after being surprisingly low last week.  This looks like catch up. Trader talk is that South Africa raised its estimate for corn production this season by 0.9% to 14.02MMT.   The head of Ukraine’s state weather forecasting center stated that Ukrainian corn production could decline by 6% to 29MMT this year because of military conflicts in eastern areas of the country.  Trade estimates for the USDA weekly export sales report are in the 800,000 MT to 1.2 MMT range, with 300-450,000 MT expected to be old crop. The old crop total in last weeks report was smaller than expected and aggravated price pressure.

 

Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.61 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.71 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.83 1/2, up 1/2 cent

May 15 Corn closed at $3.91 1/2, up 1/4 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed 6 to 19 cents lower.   The debate continues whether current dry conditions are hurting the crop in the WCB. Cool temps are mitigating moisture stress from what it might otherwise be. Trade ideas for the Thursday morning USDA Weekly Export Sales report are in the 900,000 MT to 1.2 MMT range. Sources expect positive old crop sales, i.e. larger bookings than cancellations or deferrals.  Some sources are expecting new crop soybean meal bookings as large as 500-650,000 MT.

 

Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $12.20 1/2, down 6 cents,

Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.02 1/4, down 19 1/4 cents,

Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.81 1/4, down 13 3/4 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.89, down 13 1/4 cents,

Aug 14 Soybean Meal closed at $387.60, down $7.80,

Aug 14 Soybean Oil closed at $36.05, down $0.20

Wheat

Wheat futures closed 2 to 7 cents higher.  Trader talk is that the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange lowered their estimate for planted wheat acres in Argentina from 1.1 M acres to 1.03M.  South Africa lowered their planted wheat acres to 1.2M acres, down 4.3% from the previous year. Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of another 205,500 metric tons of wheat to Nigeria.  Reuters reports that Egypt bought 175,000 MT of Russian wheat at its overnight tender for mid-September delivery. The US was not expected to be competitive due to freight costs, and no US wheat was offered. Trade estimates for the USDA weekly export sales report are 350,000 MT to 550,000 MT.

 

Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.27 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.17, up 5 1/2 cents,

Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.12 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents

Cattle

Cattle futures settled $0.67 to $1.02 higher.  Feeders were $1.85 to $2.12 higher.  Wholesale beef prices are higher, with choice boxes up $1.52 at $262.86.  The select cut out was up $1.80 at $260.83 in the pm report. Packers continue to receive significant returns from the byproduct credit, quoted at $16.20/cwt today. At last weeks estimated average live weight of 1316 pounds, that credit would be $213.19 per head! Cash cattle trade is not expected until later in the week. Asking prices appear to be $168-170 in the south and $266-269 in the north. Estimated week to date FI slaughter is 336,000 head, 8% below the same mid-week point in 2013.

 

Aug 14 Cattle closed at $159.850, up $1.025,

Oct 14 Cattle closed at $159.925, up $0.975,

Dec 14 Cattle closed at $159.925, up $0.675,

Aug 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $223.025, up $1.850

Sep 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $224.200, up $2.000

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $224.025, up $2.125

Lean Hogs

Lean hogs settled $2.55 to $2.65 lower. The average pork carcass cutout value was $0.19 higher this afternoon at $131.13.  Cash hog prices continue to be under pressure despite the steady tone in the cutouts. The packer wins in that situation. IA/MN area carcass base prices were $.92 lower, the WCB hogs were quoted 0.97 lower. The Eastern Corn Belt (ECB) average was $1.82 lower.  Week to date slaughter is estimate at 1.198 million head, still running above week and year ago. This may be due to floating holidays utilized by packers in those previous periods.

 

Aug 14 Hogs closed at $119.150, down $2.650,

Oct 14 Hogs closed at $103.700, down $2.550

Dec 14 Hogs closed at $94.450, down $2.650

Cotton

 Cotton futures settled 101 to110 points lower.  October futures settled at 63.34, the lowest front month futures settlement for cotton since October 2009.  Options volume exceeded futures again today, and was heavily weighted to puts. Cert stocks were reported at 146,136 bales, with 10,945 decerts and 0 new certs.  The Cotlook A Index is down 0.60 at 80.40.  China cotton futures on the Zhengzhou exchange for January delivery were down 0.34%.  Grower to business sales were reported at 729 bales.  Indian producers are hustling to make up for lost time, with the monsoon finally allowing planting in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Planting is still about 5.8 million acres behind year ago, according to a government agency there.

 

Oct 14 Cotton closed at 63.34, down 110 points,

Dec 14 Cotton closed at 64, down 101 points

Mar 15 Cotton closed at 64.84, down 107 points


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