AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading steady to slightly lower this morning after fractionally higher action on Wednesday. Trade estimates for the USDA weekly export sales report on Thursday morning are 650,000 to 900,000 MT.  USDA put the actual net export sales at 685,900 MT. Ethanol stocks in the weekly EIA report increased by 200,000 barrels from last week while production was down 8000 bpd. Fourth quarter US corn use was record large at 2.62 bbu, but carryover is comfortable with a record new crop expected.  Broker FC Stone raised projected US corn yield to 178.4 bushels per acre and production at 14.958 billion bushels. 

Soybeans

Soybeans are trading mostly a penny lower this morning. The USDA hike to 44 bpa for last years yield is reinforcing ideas that this year is 48 or higher given better growing conditions in 2014.  Broker FC Stone raised its projected US soybean yield to 48.4 bpa, with production of 4.066 billion bushels. Prices got a little support yesterday with the frost/freeze risk areas expanding into parts of MN and the Dakotas for Saturday morning on the most aggressive models. Trade estimates for Canadian canola production have risen to 14.5-14.6 MMT vs. the prior Stats Canada estimate of 13.9 MMT.  Trade estimates for USDA weekly export sales this morning were 700,000 MT to 1 MMT. USDA reported 890,600 MT, with China taking 730,800 MT. 

Wheat

Wheat futures are currently trading 4 to 6 cents higher after a mixed close on Wednesday. Expectations for weekly US export sales were in the 400,000-600,000 MT range. The USDA report this morning showed net sales of 685,900 MT, with Nigeria the largest buyer.  Estimates for Canadian wheat production are creeping toward 28 MMT, up about 300,000 MT from the previous Stats Canada estimate but still well below the 37 MMT crop in 2013.  KC Protein premiums firmed by 12 to 15 cents per bushel across the full range. They want ordinary and they want 14 pro.  Of course the 14 pro basis is 30 cents stronger than that for ordinary. 

Cattle

Cattle futures are tradingaround 40 to 55 cents higher this morning.   Feeders are showing strong gains in electronic trading after limit up gains on Wednesday.  Futures for October feeders are currently trading above $240.  Boxed beef prices were higher yesterday, with Choice boxes averaging 11 cents higher, and Select boxes averaging $0.73 higher.  Cash cattle trade so far this week has been quiet, with some packers living off of formula cattle. Some asking prices appear to be $162-163 in the south and $254-255 in the north. Estimated week to date slaughter is even with a week ago at 344,000 head, but 19K head smaller than the same period a year ago. USDA reported net weekly beef export sales for last were totaled 12,000 MT, which was down 2% vs. the previous week. 

Lean Hogs

Hog futures are currently trading from 62 cents lower to 15 cents higher.  The CME lean hog index was up 66 cents yesterday at $108.96. The pork carcass cutout value averaged $0.18 lower at $121.80.  Estimated week to date slaughter is 1.218 million head, down 85,000 head from the same point a year ago. Carcass base hog prices were $.13 lower in the IA/MN area, $.26 lower in the WCB and $1.11 higher in the ECB. USDA this morning reported weekly port export sales hit 22,800 MT for the week ending September 25. 

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 7 to 24 points lower this morning.  Export sales reported today for last week were 236,400 RB with Pima cotton making up just 2,300 RB of the combined old and new crop total.  ICE Certified stocks are at 18,427 bales, with 118 decerts. ICAC lowered projected Chinese cotton imports for 2014/15 to 2 million tonnes, down 36% from last year. They see world imports dropping 11% year/year to 8 million tons, with ROW (Rest of World excluding China) growing about 2% to 6 million tons. 


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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