AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading steady to slightly lower at midday.  Prices are still mired in the trading range begun in July.  Weekly export inspections were 873,195 MT, or just under 34.4 million bushels. They were 229,490 MT larger last week. Trading interest was very thin on Friday and again last night, with many extending the Labor Day weekend as long as possible.  The IGC raised its projected global corn production another 4 MMT, to 973 MMT. That compares to 982 MMT a year ago.   There were zero deliveries vs. September futures, with only 7 contracts worth of grain registered. The oldest long has been waiting since 3/3/14.

Sep 14 Corn is at $3.56 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 14 Corn is at $3.64, down 3/4 cent,

Mar 15 Corn is at $3.76 3/4, down 1 cent

May 15 Corn is at $3.85, down 1 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures are showing double digit gains to start the month.  The delivery squeeze situation continues to unwind for the September beans and bean meal. Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS) images are in the twitter-verse, stirring speculation about potential yield loss in those fields where it shows up.  A number of private estimates are expected to come out between now and Friday, with the USDA report on September 11. Weekly export inspections reported by the USDA this morning were 37,381 MT, significantly lower than last week, and off 7.4% from the weekly total a year ago.  Year to date export inspections are 21.5% more than they were a year ago.  There will be 3 days of old crop business reported next Monday, as the marketing year ended 8/31 and this Inspections report was through August 28. There were no September meal or soybean deliveries over the weekend, with no deliverable receipts. The oldest meal long is from 6/10/13!

Sep 14 Soybeans are at $11.04 1/4, up 14 3/4 cents,

Nov 14 Soybeans are at $10.36 1/4, up 12 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans are at $10.43 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans are at $10.51 1/4, up 10 cents,

Sep 14 Soybean Meal is at $447.50, up $8.00,

Sep 14 Soybean Oil is at $32.41, up $0.37

Wheat

Wheat futures are trading lower at midday, with the exception of the September MGE wheat contract, which is a nickel higher than the Friday close.  The weekly Export Inspections report published this morning showed 773,041 MT shipped, up from 578,942 last week.  The year to date total is running nearly 30% behind a year ago but this is an improvement.  The IGC hiked projected world wheat production a whopping 11 MMT late last week, to 713 MMT. They are seeing increased production potential in several countries since last month. There were 546 deliveries vs. September KC futures over the weekend, with Dreyfus stopping 364 of them. There were 49 deliveries vs. Chicago. The managed money accounts net position was shown getting less-short in CHI wheat last week, but less-long in KC wheat. SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports totaled 3.7 MMT in August.

Sep 14 CBOT Wheat is at $5.41, down 9 1/4 cents,

Sep 14 KCBT Wheat is at $6.14, down 12 1/4 cents,

Sep 14 MGEX Wheat is at $6.20 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents

Cattle

Cattle futures are sharply higher at midday.  Feeders are also higher, with the deferred contracts narrowing their spreads with the front-month Sept contract.  Wholesale beef prices were reported higher this morning.  Choice boxes were up 41 cents, and select boxes are up 81 cents this morning.  Last week, cash cattle trade was stronger at $155-156 and northern carcass trades were reported between $243 and 245. These were generally up $3 from the prior week. Packers will need to step up the pace a little to make up for the shortened holiday week.  

Oct 14 Cattle are at $153.150, up $1.725,

Dec 14 Cattle are at $155.900, up $1.950,

Feb 15 Cattle are at $156.325, up $1.725,

Sep 14 Feeder Cattle are at $220.275, up $1.625

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle are at $218.900, up $2.175

Nov 14 Feeder Cattle are at $217.775, up $2.400

Lean Hogs

Hog futures are trading higher on the day with October hogs up nearly two bucks; posting the highest price in that contract since August 11.  Dec hogs hit their highest level since August 6, but have backed off a bit at midday.  The cutout price is off 18 cents in the morning report after losing 1.81% last week.  Bellies and hams are lower, but the Pic and Butt primal cutouts are higher.  Cash hogs were not reported this morning by USDA for any of the three major marketing areas due to confidentiality.  Weekly FI hog slaughter was down slightly from the previous week.

Oct 14 Hogs are at $100.075, up $1.950,

Dec 14 Hogs are at $93.375, up $1.375

Feb 15 Hogs are at $91.650, up $0.825

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading sharply lower at midday with the front five contracts down triple digits.  The US dollar index is sharply higher, up .229 at midday, helped by a steep drop in the Euro this morning.  Crude oil is trading sharply lower.  US cotton export commitments (sales plus bales already shipped) are 50% of the full year forecast vs. the average of 41%. USDA shows the AWP for August 29 through September 4 at 54.71, vs. the national average loan rate of 52.00.  Certified stocks are down to 70,987.

Oct 14 Cotton is at 66.45, down 115 points,

Dec 14 Cotton is at 65.18, down 139 points

Mar 15 Cotton is at 65.31, down 170 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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